Showing posts with label imran khan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label imran khan. Show all posts

Sunday, June 2, 2013

The Third Way

The success of PTI in the general elections represents a significant shift in Pakistani politics. A third power has arrived to counteract the influence of PPP and PML-N.

For a shift to occur, it isn't enough that a party simply carves out room for itself on the political scene. It must do so on the basis of some new political idea or strategy that hasn't been tried before.

In the case of PTI, it can claim to be the first truly democratic party in Pakistan on the basis of the highly visible and transparent internal elections that it conducted leading up to the general elections. When these internal elections were conducted, many onlookers believed that PTI would have been better off delaying them given the destabilizing nature of party elections. However, PTI proved that internal elections could take place and party unity could still be maintained. That PTI was able to reorganize themselves after the internal elections and launch an effective election campaign displays a level of party professionalism rarely seen in Pakistan's political culture.

Another characteristic that sets PTI apart is consistency regarding policy. For example, it has steadily maintained a clear anti-drone stance. For better or for worse, it has refused to compromise on this issue. This is in stark contrast to the policy adopted by the previous PPP government which tacitly allowed drone attacks while publicly condemning them.

However, there are several grounds on which people argue against PTI being a third force.

There is the fact that PTI has only been able to form a government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Even if the party manages to set itself apart from other parties, it only has representation in KP. The argument is that this isn't enough representation to cause any major political shift.

However, parliamentary presence is not the only indicator of popularity. For example, PML-N has more than three times the number of National Assembly seats as PTI. However, it has only won twice as many votes overall. These results don't even take into account the vote-rigging that occurred in Punjab where PML-N won the brunt of its National Assembly seats. The same can be said for the vote-rigging that occurred in Karachi. Eyewitnesses and vote counts testify to PTI's substantial popularity here despite the near omniscient presence of MQM.

It is clear, then, that the alternative appeal of PTI is not relegated to KP.

Another complaint that is frequently brought forward is that PTI came to power using political tactics not much different from other parties.

For example, PTI brought political veterans like Shah Mehmood Qureshi and Javed Hashmi into its ranks. As Makhdooms, they derive much - if not all - of their political capital from their personalities and not their policy positions. By engaging in this practice, is PTI not perpetuating personality-based politics in Pakistan?

There is no doubt that these are expedient measures which PTI used to gain a short-term advantage. However, as a party which has national ambitions, PTI needs to work within the very political culture that it seeks to change. And this political culture is a direct product of a social culture which is frequently centered on powerful individuals, clans and families. It is that culture which produces the phenomenon of personality-based politics.

Many critics also point out that the party engaged in the age-old practice of seat adjustment with the likes of Jamaat Islaami and Sheikh Rasheed. This tactic is essentially an alliance of convenience which parties enter into to secure seats. It is rarely an alliance based on vision. The worst part is that it degrades the political process by removing the element of competition between parties.

This, however, is once again a by-product of Pakistani society. Many voters simply refuse to vote along the lines of ideology. And where there is no demand for a competition of ideas, there will be no supply of ideas. It is within this context that PTI - like all other parties - agreed to enter into seat adjustments. The difference is that with PTI, there is at least some room for ideology. With most other parties, there is little to none.

In any case, this is all set against the backdrop of elections in which many parties came to power through coercion, voter intimidation, and rigging. Gaining power through personality-based politics and seat adjustments may be short-sighted. But it doesn't compare to stealing a mandate.

PTI must use the mandate that it has gained to solidify its position and push through its policies wherever it has gained power. KP represents a major challenge in terms of security and success here will have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the country as well. KP, then, will be one of the major tests of whether PTI represents a true third way.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

The Qureshi Gamble

Deng Xiaoping famously said, "It doesn't matter whether a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice."

It is with this sense of pragmatism that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf welcomed Shah Mehmood Qureshi into their fold.

The PTI have been pining for a political heavyweight for some time now and their prayers have been answered in the form of Qureshi. He brings with him over 20 years of political experience and has been head of the Punjab chapter of the PPP.

How does his arrival bode for the PTI's future?

I have written earlier about why bringing on any member of the old political class - not just Qureshi - may do the PTI more harm than good.

Qureshi is a Sajjada Nashin. A Makhdoom. He is guaranteed votes largely on the basis of his inherited title. In this sense, he represents the very dynasticism that Imran Khan says he is against. By bringing him on, the PTI is sacrificing at least part of their vision. For a party which sees itself as energizing the youth, such a sacrifice may have severe long-term consequences.

As well, Qureshi has been awarded a senior post within the PTI. There is speculation that the awarding of the post may have helped seal the deal to bring him over. If this is true, it will likely not sit well with at least a few PTI members who have been with the party since the beginning.

Having said that, there are a number of ways that the PTI can play this to their advantage.

Qureshi's inherited power may very well be the antithesis of what the PTI claims to stand for. But barring a seismic, overnight shift in social values, inherited power will remain a fixture in Pakistan for a long time to come. Bringing Qureshi in is less a betrayal of vision, and more an acknowledgement of the prevailing social norms that one needs to operate under. It demonstrates that the PTI is aware of ground realities in the less urban areas of Pakistan.

As well, the PTI can rightly point to Qureshi's actions during the Raymond Davis affair and offer him as an example of a politician unwilling to compromise on his principles.

Qureshi's political rival in his Multan constituency is Makhdoom Javed Hashmi, a senior leader in the PML-N. Given Qureshi's success in securing a National Assembly seat in 2002 and 2008, there is a strong chance he will defeat Hashmi again and be re-elected in future elections. This would significantly undermine the PML-N and is in line with the PTI positioning itself against Nawaz Sharif.

Finally, Qureshi may offer the PTI a path into Interior Sindh, an area where they haven't been able to make inroads. How might this occur?

Ever since his resignation from the Foreign Minister post, Qureshi has been unequivocal in distancing himself from Asif Ali Zardari. Recently, he termed the PPP a "Zardari" league.

However, Qureshi has always spoken approvingly of the Bhutto legacy.

Leading up to his announcement to join PTI, Qureshi met with Ghinwa Bhutto and Mumtaz Bhutto. That Qureshi chose not to hold the rally in his Multan home constituency, but rather in Ghotki, Sindh is another indication that Qureshi's long-term strategy may be to ally himself with PPP dissidents - like Ghinwa and Mumtaz Bhutto - who want to promote the "true" Bhutto legacy. Regardless, this may be one of the only ways the PTI can extend into Sindh.

It's too early to tell whether this gamble will pay off. What is certain is that, for the time being, the PTI is holding all the aces.